Germany Ishares MSCI ETF (EWG)’s MFI Reading Under The Lens

The Money Flow Indicator for Germany Ishares MSCI ETF (EWG) has touched above 60 and has found a place on investor’s radar as it potentially nears the key 70 mark.  The MFI indicator is an oscillator which ranges between fixed values of 0 and 100 and as with most oscillators divergences form a major part of trading with the MFI indicator.  Traders look for divergence between the indicator and the price action. If the price trends higher and the MFI trends lower (or vice versa), a reversal may be imminent.  Market tops tend to occur when the MFI is above 70 or 80. Market bottoms tend to occur when the MFI is below 20.

Investors should however be wary of trading these levels blindly. As the warning goes, an overbought market can remain overbought for an extended period. Strong trends can present a problem for these classic overbought and oversold levels. The MFI can become overbought, and prices can simply continue higher when the uptrend is strong. Conversely, the MFI can become oversold, and prices can simply continue lower when the downtrend persists.  Like the RSI, this indicator is best used in conjunction with another indicator as confirmation. 

Even professional traders can sometimes guess wrong about market direction. Many traders may have to balance emotion with the fear of missing out on a strong market move. Investors may be tempted to jump on the bullish bandwagon when stocks are powering higher. Investors on the wrong side of the market swing may have to consider what may be in store over the next few months. It’s only natural to pause and take a little breather once in a while. Investors may be chomping at the bit to buy up the dips if the market continues to advance. Fresh buying opportunities can surface at any moment, and the prepared trader may be poised to take full advantage. Keeping a close watch on earnings beats may help investors catch the wave early enough to secure some future profits.

Taking a deeper look into the technicals, Germany Ishares MSCI ETF (EWG) currently has a 50-day Moving Average of 26.11, the 200-day Moving Average is 29.04, and the 7-day is noted at 26.81. Following moving averages with different time frames may help offer a wide variety of stock information. A longer average like the 200-day may serve as a smoothing tool when striving to evaluate longer term trends. On the flip side, a shorter MA like the 50-day may help with identifying shorter term trading signals. Moving averages may also function well as a tool for determining support and resistance levels.

Traders may be relying in part on technical stock analysis. Germany Ishares MSCI ETF (EWG) currently has a 14-day Commodity Channel Index (CCI) of -135.55. Despite the name, CCI can be used on other investment tools such as stocks. The CCI was designed to typically stay within the reading of -100 to +100. Traders may use the indicator to determine stock trends or to identify overbought/oversold conditions. A CCI reading above +100 would imply that the stock is overbought and possibly ready for a correction. On the other hand, a reading of -100 would imply that the stock is oversold and possibly set for a rally.

At the time of writing, the 14-day ADX for Germany Ishares MSCI ETF (EWG) is 14.38. Many technical chart analysts believe that an ADX value over 25 would suggest a strong trend. A reading under 20 would indicate no trend, and a reading from 20-25 would suggest that there is no clear trend signal. The ADX is typically plotted along with two other directional movement indicator lines, the Plus Directional Indicator (+DI) and Minus Directional Indicator (-DI). Some analysts believe that the ADX is one of the best trend strength indicators available.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of multiple popular technical indicators created by J. Welles Wilder. Wilder introduced RSI in his book “New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems” which was published in 1978. RSI measures the magnitude and velocity of directional price movements. The data is represented graphically by fluctuating between a value of 0 and 100. The indicator is computed by using the average losses and gains of a stock over a certain time period. RSI can be used to help spot overbought or oversold conditions. An RSI reading over 70 would be considered overbought, and a reading under 30 would indicate oversold conditions. A level of 50 would indicate neutral market momentum. The 14-day RSI is currently sitting at 45.62, the 7-day is at 34.96, and the 3-day is spotted at 16.55.

Investors who have stayed on the sidelines may be considering if the markets will continue to rally higher. Staying vigilant and watching for signs of the next bear may prove to be a crucial element for helping to guide certain portfolio moves. Keeping an eye on historical corrections as well as sentiment and technicals, may help provide the proper insight needed. Investors may be mindful of any meaningful pullback or correction, and they may have a certain percentage in mind for when things seem to be getting out of hand. Cautious optimism may prove to be a profit saver when the bearish winds start to blow. Investors may need to figure out a plan for when to take some profit off the table. Conducting thorough fundamental research on stocks even after they have broken out may help the investor understand the reason behind the move, and whether it is likely to continue or if it is just a temporary spike.