US Natural Gas Fund (UNG) Sees Schaff Trend Cycle Trend Downward Near-Term

US Natural Gas Fund (UNG) are in trader’s focus this week as the Schaff Trend Cycle indicator has trending lower consistently over the past week.  Investors will be watching to see if the price level breaches the overbought signal at 75, which would suggest the strong likelihood of a near-term pullback.

Introduced in 2008 by Douglas Schaff, the conecpt of the Schaff Trend Cycle (STC) is to identify peaks and lows and predict reversals by running through a cycle oscillator, creating an effective indicator for entry and exit signals, when used in conjuction with additional signals. The STC combines an exponential moving average with slow stochastics to display a signal line that oscillates between two levels on a scale of 0 to 100. 

Figuring out when to sell a stock can be just as important as deciding what stocks to buy at the outset. Some investors may refuse to sell based on various factors. Investors may have become stubborn, too emotionally attached, or set too high of an expectation for a stock. Holding on to a stock for way too long in order to squeeze every last drop of profit out of a price move may leave the investor desperately searching for answers in the future. Investors may have different checklists for when it is time to sell a stock. Of course this depends largely on the individual and how much is at risk. Often times, investors will make a move to sell when the fundamentals drastically change, the dividend is cut, or a previous set target price has been hit. Getting out of a position at the right time is obviously not easy, but it may become a bit easier with time and research.

Turning to some additional metrics for US Natural Gas Fund (UNG), we note that the shares currently have a 50-day Moving Average of 24.40, the 200-day Moving Average is 26.09, and the 7-day is noted at 23.59. Following moving averages with different time frames may help offer a wide variety of stock information. A longer average like the 200-day may serve as a smoothing tool when striving to evaluate longer term trends. On the flip side, a shorter MA like the 50-day may help with identifying shorter term trading signals. Moving averages may also function well as a tool for determining support and resistance levels.

The stock investing process may seem intimidating to those just starting out. New investors may have a lot to learn, and they may be wondering where to start. Because there are so many different stock picking strategies, it can be hard to find one specific one to latch on to. Keeping things simple might be a good way to approach the market for beginners. The day to day market happenings can get overwhelming not only for amateurs but professional investors as well. Finding that first little advantage can make all the difference when picking stocks. Many new investors may have the tendency to make too many trades at first without doing the proper research. Easing in to the process may give some much needed perspective for attaining long-term success in the stock market.

Traders may be relying in part on technical stock analysis. US Natural Gas Fund (UNG) currently has a 14-day Commodity Channel Index (CCI) of -85.51. Despite the name, CCI can be used on other investment tools such as stocks. The CCI was designed to typically stay within the reading of -100 to +100. Traders may use the indicator to determine stock trends or to identify overbought/oversold conditions. A CCI reading above +100 would imply that the stock is overbought and possibly ready for a correction. On the other hand, a reading of -100 would imply that the stock is oversold and possibly set for a rally.

At the time of writing, the 14-day ADX for US Natural Gas Fund (UNG) is 20.24. Many technical chart analysts believe that an ADX value over 25 would suggest a strong trend. A reading under 20 would indicate no trend, and a reading from 20-25 would suggest that there is no clear trend signal. The ADX is typically plotted along with two other directional movement indicator lines, the Plus Directional Indicator (+DI) and Minus Directional Indicator (-DI). Some analysts believe that the ADX is one of the best trend strength indicators available.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of multiple popular technical indicators created by J. Welles Wilder. Wilder introduced RSI in his book “New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems” which was published in 1978. RSI measures the magnitude and velocity of directional price movements. The data is represented graphically by fluctuating between a value of 0 and 100. The indicator is computed by using the average losses and gains of a stock over a certain time period. RSI can be used to help spot overbought or oversold conditions. An RSI reading over 70 would be considered overbought, and a reading under 30 would indicate oversold conditions. A level of 50 would indicate neutral market momentum. The 14-day RSI is currently sitting at 38.96, the 7-day is at 35.87, and the 3-day is spotted at 46.57.